While John and I will be filming our own Academy Awards preview for this Friday, I thought it would be best to run through my personal choices on the site as well. To me, this year's Oscars has about as little drama as we've seen in a very long time. With 10 nominations, Michael Hazanacicius' silent film homage, The Artist, is just shy of Hugo for the lead, but for months the film has dominated the awards season and has picked up an incredible amount of momentum along the way. It's recent wins at the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild seemed to me like the final nail in the coffin for all the other films thinking they stood a ghost of a chance.
There will, of course, be some surprises, and they'll likely come in the acting categories. Jonah Hill makes for a nice side story, going from chubby goofball in movies like Accepted and Superbad to a legitimate actor. Part of me thinks this is probably the only time we'll see Hill mentioned in this context, so hopefully his fans will enjoy the moment in the sun. Christopher Plummer will hopefully, finally get the Oscar he so rightly deserved for his role in Beginners, for which he's already taken home a Golden Globe.
Best Actor has some legit heat behind it, with Brad Pitt, George Clooney, and Jean Dujardin making for a powerful trio of contenders. If you had asked me a month ago I would have said Viola Davis was a sure thing to win for The Help, but lately it's felt like Meryl Streep has picked up some serious steam after wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs.
The rest of the show should go off without too much of a hitch. Below you'll find my picks for who will win, the dark horse, who should win, and in some cases what was criminally left out of the discussion...
Best Picture
Rather than sticking with a hard and fast '5' or '10' nominations, the Academy has left themselves some wiggle room by being able to choose any number of contenders. This year they selected nine, although there are only a handful that can be considered serious threats. As mentioned earlier, this one appears to belong completely to The Artist. The Descendants could have been considered an early leader in the category, but has slipped while The Artist has only become more popular. Working in Alexander Payne's potential favor is a whip smart marketing campaign that has had The Descendants in the box office for more than four months, with The Artist barely making a blip over here.
None of that will matter, though. The Academy loves movies like this, the kind that celebrate the art of filmmaking. So much so that I think Martin Scorsese's Hugo has gotten some runoff from The Artist's success, since they both speak to that same idea. Where a monkeywrench might get thrown into the works is with The Help, which has all the popular support a film could ever hope for, and very lightly touches on themes of race and social inequality, while featuring one fiery performance as it's engine. Sound familiar? Yeah, The Blind Side had some of that same momentum a couple of years ago, but ultimately fell short. The Help will do the same this year.
Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win: The Descendants
The Dark Horse: The Help
Shoulda been a contender : Drive, starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Nicolas Winding Refn
Best Director
Sorry Woody, Terence, and Alexander, this one boils down to Michael Hazanavicius and Martin Scorsese. I can see a split developing here between the top two competitive races, with The Artist taking home Best Picture, but Scorsese winning for Best Director. Hazanavicius seems to have the leg up by winning the coveted Director's Guild award, but then again Scorsese did win the Golden Globe. This one's almost too close to call, but alas I will try....
Who Will Win: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Who Should Win: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
The Dark Horse: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Shoulda been a contender: Lars von Trier, Melancholia
Best Actor
This is by far the most intriguing match up of the night, with three legitimate contenders for the victory. Jean Dujardin and George Clooney split the Best Actor wins at the Golden Globes, while Brad Pitt seems to be chugging along purely on good word of mouth for his understated performance in Moneyball. I've been saying for months that Clooney's performance is the most well rounded and complex of the bunch, and I continue to agree with myself on that. If the vote gets split too much between all three men, don't be surprised if the popular momentum for Gary Oldman leads to a shocking win.
Who will win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Who should win: George Clooney, The Descendants
The Dark Horse: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Shoulda been a contender: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actress
What happened to Michelle Williams? It's like suddenly everyone forgot how great she was as the blonde Hollywood bombshell, Marilyn Monroe. For whatever reason she has completely dropped off the radar, with Viola Davis the clear frontrunner for her role as a feisty maid in The Help. I can see why Davis would be the favorite, as she truly is the heart of that story, and she has more than fought her way to the top of the acting heap over the course of her career. She faces a surging Meryl Streep, who Davis soundly out acted in Doubt a few years ago, and if comparisons are made here then Davis wins out again. Streep has earned this type of favoritism, whereas someone else like Leonardo Dicaprio hasn't, even though he also gave a mediocre performance as a real life figure but didn't get nominated for Best Actor.
Who Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help
Who Should Win: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
The Dark Horse: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Shoulda been a contender: Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Best Supporting Actor
Ok, all you people out there hoping Max Von Sydow will somehow pull an upset in the geriatric battle between he and Christopher Plummer can pack your bags and skip town. It's not happening. This category is about as much of a stone cold lead pipe lock as you can get, as Plummer has deserved an Oscar for years but never got one, and in this very rare instance he'll be a veteran actor who actually earns it. The biggest surprises in this category are the presence of Jonah Hill, playing against type opposite Brad Pitt in Moneyball. And then there's the lack of presence by Albert Brooks, who for awhile looked like the guy to truly give Plummer a run for his money. It's a crying shame that Nick Nolte doesn't have more buzz for his heart tugging turn in the macho flick, Warrior. Any other year and he'd be a shoe-in.
Who will win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Who should win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
The Dark Horse: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Shoulda been a contender: Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actress
While this one appears sewn up for Octavia Spencer and her soulful performance as Minnie in The Help, it's not as clear cut as it used to be. Two potential dark horses have emerged in Melissa McCarthy and Berenice Bejo. After being waved off as a contender early in the year for her off kilter part in last year's unquestioned comedy king(queen?), Bridesmaids, she rode a wave of popular support to a BAFTA and SAG nomination and various other victories around the country. Bejo, who sparkled as the appropriately named Peppy Miller in The Artist, has that film's considerable engine backing her. Still, this looks like Spencer's category to take home.
Who will win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Who should win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
The Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Shoulda been a contender: Carey Mulligan, Shame
Best Animated Feature
Someone want to tell me how The Adventures of Tintin doesn't make it in but Puss in Boots does? It's a travesty, and a clear shot across the bow at the performance capture technique utilized by Stephen Spielberg and Peter Jackson. The frontrunner appears to be Gore Verbinski and Johnny Depp's wild existential western, Rango, but don't be shocked if one of the foreign offerings swoops in.
Who will win: Rango
Who should win: Rango
The Dark Horse: A Cat in Paris
Shoulda been a contender: The Adventures of Tintin
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Who should win: Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne & Jim Rash, The Descendants
The Dark Horse: George Clooney, Beau Willimon & Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Who should win: Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
The Dark Horse: JC Chandor, Margin Call
Best Foreign Language Film
Who will win: A Separation
Who should win: A Separation
The Dark Horse: Bullhead
Shoulda been a contender: The Skin I Live In
Best Documentary Feature
Who will win: Undefeated
Who should win: Undefeated
The Dark Horse: Paradise Lost 3
Shoulda been a contender: Beats, Rhymes, and Life: The Travels of A Tribe Called Quest
Best Cinematography
Who will win: The Tree of Life
Who should win: The Tree of Life
The Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Art Direction
Who will win: Hugo
Who should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt. 2
The Dark Horse: Midnight in Paris
Best Costume Design
Who will win: The Artist
Who should win: The Artist
The Dark Horse: Jane Eyre
Best Film Editing
Who will win: The Artist
Who should win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Make-Up
Who will win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt. 2
Who should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt. 2
Best Original Score
Who will win: War Horse, by John Williams
Who should win: The Adventures of Tintin, by John Williams
Shoulda been a contender: Drive, by Cliff Martinez
Best Original Song
Who will win: "Man or Muppet", The Muppets
Best Sound Editing
Who will win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Best Sound Mixing
Who will win: Hugo
Best Visual Effects
Who will win: Hugo
Who should win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Dark Horse: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt. 2
