In just a few short days it'll be the 86th Academy Awards, when Hollywood will (mostly) put all of the lobbying and horse-trading behind them and honor the best movies of the prior year. Actually, they'll honor the best movies that had the best marketing campaigns and threw the best parties with the most awesome swag, but that's a discussion for another day. This year we're basically looking at a three film race to take everything: American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years A Slave. They've cleaned up on the overlong awards drive leading up to this point, and there's little reason to think that will end now. A few surprises could bubble up in the acting categories, though, thanks to Matthew McConaughey who seems especially tough to keep down. The same can't be said for Robert Redford, Emma Thompson, or Tom Hanks, who were expected to be contenders but couldn't quite cross the finish line.
Enough jabbering. Here are my picks for who will win, the dark horse, who should win, and in some cases what was criminally left out of the discussion. Feel free to come back here when all is said and done to mock my wild misfires, of which there usually many.
Best Picture
Well, here's where everything will come to a head. A few weeks ago one would have said this was Gravity or 12 Years a Slave's award to win, but the late release of American Hustle was a brilliant bit of chess. Ignore those other six movies on the list; they're only here to bump up Blu-Ray sales. The popular theory is that 12 Years a Slave will win here, with Alfonso Cuaron getting his due in the Best Director category. But I say screw that; Cuaron takes both in a shocker.
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: 12 Years A Slave
The Dark Horse: American Hustle
Shoulda Been a Contender: Short Term 12
Best Director
What Steve McQueen was able to accomplish with 12 Years a Slave is truly extraordinary, but nothing compares to the groundbreaking technical achievements of Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity. And let's face it, most people would rather feel like they're in space than at the end of Michael Fassbender's whip. Regardless of who takes it they'll be making history, either as the first African-American or Latino Best Director winner. Again, the only other nominee with any glimmer of hope is David O. Russell for American Hustle, but that was more of an actors' showcase.
Who Will and Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
The Dark Horse: David O. Russell, American Hustle
Shoulda Been a Contender: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Actor
Wow, no other category is quite as competitive as the Best Actor field, so much so that Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, Joaquin Phoenix, Michael B. Jordan and Oscar Isaac couldn't get in despite many finding them deserving. A few months ago this seemed like a shoe-in for Chiwetel Ejiofor's powerful turn in 12 Years a Slave, but after a string of victories it's looking like Matthew McConaughey may have the edge for Dallas Buyers Club. Matthew McConaughey, Oscar-winner. Yeah, wrap your head around that one. Still, I think Ejiofor edges him out, but just barely. A lot of love out there for Bruce Dern and Nebraska but a long career does not a great actor make, in my opinion. Christian Bale's hair and gut were impressive, but American Hustle belonged to the ladies. Leonardo DiCaprio dropped a ton of F-Bombs in what I think was his finest performance in a string of great ones, and any other year he would easily take it.
Who Will and Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
The Dark Horse: Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Shoulda Been a Contender: Robert Redford, All is Lost
Best Actress
Probably by default or something, Cate Blanchett seems to be the favorite here for her vastly overrated, modulation-free performance in Blue Jasmine. Despite the presence of Meryl Streep in the mediocre August: Osage County, the only one who may stir things up is Amy Adams for American Hustle. Like Blanchett, she was the best thing about the film she was in, however the difference is that American Hustle is a good film with a tremendous cast, making Adams' performance all the more impressive. Blue Jasmine is a subpar effort stashed with stand-up comedians from Woody Allen, who just so happens to be embroiled in an ugly controversy, the kind of controversy that could keep voters from supporting his film.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Who Should Win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Shoulda Been a Contender: Brie Larson, Short Term 12
Best Supporting Actor
If there's one sure-fire lead pipe lock it's that Jared Leto is walking away with some gold this weekend. He's dominated the award season for his transformative performance in Dallas Buyers Club, with the only losses coming when he wasn't even nominated, like at the BAFTAs. If Matthew McConaughey can also sure a win it'll be the first time since Mystic River that Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor victors came from the same movie. There's a lot of love out there for Jonah Hill to get the win he didn't get for Moneyball, and Barkhad Abdi's debut performance in Captain Phillips is a great Cinderella story, but neither has a chance this year.
Who Will and Should Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
The Dark Horse: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Shoulda Been a Contender: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Best Supporting Actress
Ding ding ding! In this corner we have Lupita Nyong'o, the Kenyan beauty who turned heads with her heartbreaking performance in 12 Years a Slave, her first major acting role. And in this corner is the defending champion and Hollywood darling, Jennifer Lawrence, the firecracker of American Hustle. Really, there are no other contenders in this fight, and the momentum seems to be behind Lawrence after big wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. It's probably hers to lose, but the campaign for Nyong'o has been fierce and persistent. She's been in front of every darn camera on the west coast and attended every awards ceremony big or small, and that definitely has an effect. This one is almost too close to call, but my money is on Lawrence going 2-for-2.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Who Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Shoulda Been a Contender: Octavia Spencer or Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
Best Animated Feature
The world loves legendary animator, Hayao Miyazaki, and his sterling biopic The Wind Rises has more than enough fans to drown out any detractors, but this is Disney's award to win for the Frozen. A beloved smash at the box office with a soundtrack that has parents and kids singing "Let it Go" at the top of their lungs, Frozen would be Disney Animation's first win in this category since...ever. Kind of crazy, huh?
Who Will Win: Frozen
Who Should Win: The Wind Rises
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Who Should Win: The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
The Dark Horse: Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Shoulda Been a Contender: Short Term 12, Destin Daniel Cretton
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Who Should Win: Her, Spike Jonze
Best Foreign Language Film
Who Will Win: The Broken Circle Breakdown
Who Should Win: The Hunt
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Past
Best Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: The Square
Who Should win: The Act of Killing
Shoulda Been a Contender: Stories We Tell
Best Cinematography
Who Will and Should Win: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
The Dark Horse: Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Shoulda Been a Contender: 12 Years a Slave, Sean Bobbitt
Best Production Design
Who Will Win: Gravity
Who Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Best Costume Design
Who Will Win: American Hustle
Who Should Win: The Great Gatsby
Best Film Editing
Who Will and Should Win: Gravity
Best Make-Up & Hairstyling
Who Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
The Dark Horse: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Best Original Score
Who Will Win: Gravity, Steven Price
Who Should Win: Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Shoulda Been a Contender: Short Term 12, Joel P. West
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: "Let It Go, Frozen
Who Should Win: "Happy" by Pharrell Williams, Despicable Me 2
Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Gravity
Shoulda Been a Contender: Rush
Best Visual Effects
Who Will and Should Win: Gravity
