Perhaps this year's race feels overlong because Best Picture nominees Boyhood and Whiplash emerged way back in January, and The Grand Budapest Hotel was another early season favorite. So we've been talking about how good these films are for an extremely long time already. Other than the brief, and totally expected, talk about the Academy's utter lack of diversity, especially when it comes to the treatment of Ava DuVernay's Selma, the awards race has been pretty dull and one I'm glad to see end. Even when you get to the acting categories the favorites have basically already been decided, right?
So enough talk. Let's get right down to my predictions for the categories I care about. Do I care what film wins for Best Costumes? Not really. As usual, my picks will include who will win, who should win, and any dark horses that may emerge.
Best Picture
Ding ding ding! In this corner, a film twelve years in the making that has captured the hearts of everyone who has seen it and is truly a labor of love, it's Richard Linklater's Boyhood! And in this corner, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Birdman, a technical marvel that shines a light on Hollywood and features an outstanding comeback performance by Michael Keaton. Boyhood got a big victory at the BAFTAs, generally a solid indicator for the Oscars, while Birdman has performed better with the individual guilds. There seems to have been a little bit of backlash against Linklater's film, but there has never been anything quite like it ever, and that historical significance is what will win out in the end. Call the cardiac team if anything other than Boyhood or Birdman wins. Sorry, there won't be any sentimental victories for Selma, my pick for best film of the year. The incredible box office American Sniper could make it a dark horse contender, but if surprise win is going to happen it would be The Grand Budapest Hotel which has notched a number of nominations in its own right.
Will Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Selma
Dark Horse: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Shoulda Been a Contender: Gone Girl
Best Director
Just like the Best Picture category, this is a two horse race between Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Richard Linklater. I'll be honest, I'm somewhat torn on this. Part of me thinks Inarritu will take it because his fingerprints are all over Birdman, and it is such a departure from his heavy, earlier work. But from the music to the nostalgic tone, Boyhood feels like a Linklater movie from top to bottom. In the end, I'm coming down on the side of the Best Picture winner.
Will Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Shoulda Been a Contender: Ava DuVernay, Selma
Best Actor
Okay, so remember when I said every major category was pretty much locked up? That was only mostly true. While I still think Michael Keaton is the slight favorite to win for Birdman, it's undeniable that Eddie Redmayne's performance in The Theory of Everything has been on a winning streak. But Keaton is the better story because Hollywood loves a comeback, and his victory speech will be one they'll want to air. This category for me is more about who isn't involved. You mean to tell me there wasn't room for David Oyelowo for Selma, or Nightcrawler's Jake Gyllenhaal? Get outta here.
Will and Should Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Shoulda Been a Contender: David Oyelowo, Selma
Best Actress
I'll take Julianne Moore for the win, please. From the moment audiences and critics saw her as a woman with Alzheimer's in Still Alice, she's been the clear frontrunner and nothing has changed. Nevermind that the film is pretty lousy, stuff like that doesn't matter, I guess. If it were up to me there are at least two other candidates that were significantly better. One is Reese Witherspoon for her physical and emotional journey in Wild, and Marion Cotillard who was at her absolute best in Two Days, One Night. Maybe Cotillard could be a sneaky pick, but I doubt it.
Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Shoulda Been a Contender: Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Best Supporting Actor
This one belongs to JK Simmons for Whiplash, and it has been his since the film debuted at Sundance in January. That's an awful long time, but his fiery and psychotic performance is hard to forget, and he's actually gained momentum after winning every single nomination. Nobody else is even in the picture, and that's saying something with the presence of Ethan Hawke for Boyhood, the great Robert Duvall for The Judge, and Edward Norton for Birdman. Oh yeah, Mark Ruffalo is there too but...come on, Foxcatcher is overrated.
Will and Should Win: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Dark Horse: No damn body
Best Supporting Actress
They should probably just have JK Simmons and Patricia Arquette take the stage together because no categories have been locked-up like theirs. Arquette easily takes it for Boyhood, pretty much because her biggest scene in the film was undeniably its best. The movie was more about her than Ellar Coltrane's character, in my opinion.
Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Should Win: Emma Stone, Birdman
Shoulda Been a Contender: Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
Best Animated Feature
Save your whining. We all know The Lego Movie should be here but unless one of the other nominees bows out and demands "I refuse to be part of a category that doesn't have The Lego Movie in it!!", that's not going to change. So best start preparing yourself for a How to Train Your Dragon 2 victory, which Dreamworks sorely needs at this point. The Boxtrolls would probably be the next best choice, and the hard-working folks at Laika certainly deserve a win for their efforts, but the film was probably too weird for the voters to wrap their heads around. Big Hero 6 was my favorite of the bunch, but the voters probably still look at it as just another superhero movie. Meanwhile, prepare for the collective "Huh??" when Song of the Sea gets mentioned.
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Should Win: Big Hero 6
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Book of Life
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and Should Win: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Dark Horse: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Shoulda Been a Contender: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Ida
Dark Horse: Wild Tales
Shoulda Been a Contender: Mommy
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Citizenfour
Should Win: Last Days in Vietnam
Shouda Been a Contender: Life Itself
